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The stock market is at a near-term inflection

AI systems can predict future events utilizing machine learning models and deep learning algorithms. Some believe it will change the financial landscape as AI systems can help investors buy or sell stocks.


One of the most promising AI algorithms for stock market predictions is Long Short-term Memory (LSTM). Although predictions are based on detailed and accurate data, it remains too early to determine if AI systems can account for unforeseen events and news flow.


Some studies suggest realistically, the success rate of AI trading is less than 50%. The complexities of the stock market and the extreme market volatilities and fluctuations can overwhelm sophisticated AI systems.


AI-powered trading systems may one day revolutionize the stock market, successfully automating analysis, trading, and identifying patterns and inflections in stock market data.


In the meantime, traditional fundamental analysis, quantitative, and technical analysis remain the standards for investment and trading decisions.


A few AI models now predict a short-term pivotal turning point in the stock market during the week of 5/5/23.


However, from a technical perspective, an inflection point may have already occurred as three bullish developments occurred on 6/2/23.


(1) Bullish daily gap-up (4,232.43-4,241.01)

(2) May 2023 accelerated uptrend channel breakout (above 4,348)

(3) Apr 2023 megaphone pattern breakout (also above 4,348).


The May 2022 uptrend channel breakout above the top of the channel at 4,238 is technically bullish as the break out suggests 108 points or an SPX target at 4,348, suggesting an impending retest of crucial intermediate-term resistance at 4,325.28, coinciding with the Aug 2022 reaction high.


Although 4,325.28 remains pivotal resistance, the recent megaphone breakout on 6/2/23 above 4,238 also suggests 218 points (height of the megaphone), rendering an SPX projection at 4,456.


Interestingly, both pattern breakouts occurred on the same day as the bullish gap-up (6/2/23), suggesting the confluence of bullish near-term conditions. The initial trading support rises to as high as 4,232-4,243 (6/2/23 gap-up, extension of the May 2023 uptrend channel, and the extension of the megaphone pattern breakout).


Secondary support is visible near 4,132-4,145.5 (bottom of the May 2022 uptrend channel and the 50-day ma). Violation of support warns of a correction to 3,975-4,017 (bottom of the Apr 2023 megaphone pattern, 200-day ma, and 3/29/23 gap-up). A convincing breakdown below the 200-day ma may signal an end to the Oct 2022 and summer 2023 rallies.


Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

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