NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) – NDX is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprising 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQ). NDX is heavily weighted toward Technology, Consumer Services, and Healthcare.
As of 12/22/23, the top 25 constituents of NDX are AAPL (9.29% market-cap weight), MSFT (8.59% market-cap weight), AMZN (4.89), AVGO (4.18), META (3.85), TSLA (3.75), NVDA (3.72), GOOGL (2.58), GOOG (2.52), COST (2.37), ADBE (2.17), PEP (1.84), AMD (1.80), NFLX (1.70), CSCO (1.62), INTC (1.61), TMUS (1.44), CMCSA (1.41), INTU (1.39), QCOM (1.27), TXN (1.22), AMGN (1.21), HON (1.08), AMAT (1.08), and BKNG (0.98). The top 25 names combined for 67.59% of the overall NDX market capitalization.
Two conflicting patterns in NDX signal an impending inflection point. One is bullish, evidenced by a monthly golden cross buy signal in Sept 2023 as the 10-month ma (14,896.90) crossed above the 30-month ma (13,940.84). The bullish monthly crossover hints at the next NDX bull rally.
For example, two previous NDX monthly golden cross buy signals in Feb 2003 after the 2000-2002 dot.com bubble and December 2010 after the 2007-2009 global financial crisis led to powerful multi-year and decade-long NDX price rallies. The recent golden cross has negated the monthly death cross-sell signal of Oct 2022. Note the monthly death-cross sell signals occurred in the two prior NDX bear market declines (i.e., Apr 2021 and Sept 2008).
A neutral trading range pattern also appears, evidenced by a double-top pattern. Failure to break out above the top of the pattern at 16,764.86 confirms a top and warns of an NDX decline toward 14,897 (10-mo ma) and below 13,941 (30-mo ma) and 10,440.64 (Oct 2022 lows). Above 16,764,86 suggests +6,324.22 points or an NDX projection at 23,089.
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