Technical Review of the Top 25 OEX Index (OEX)
S&P 100 Index (OEX) – OEX is a key US large-cap benchmark index consisting of the 100 largest stocks in the U.S. by market capitalization. The key criteria for this index are the stocks in the index must have options available for trading and at least 50% of the stock must be available for trading by the investment public. As of 12/23/22, the top 10 constituents of OEX collectively account for 37.63% of the total market-cap weighting. AAPL (9.44% mkt-cap), MSFT (8.52%), AMZN (3.62%), BRK.B (2.64%), GOOGL (2.55%), UNH (2.38%), GOOG (2.28%), JNJ (2.22), XOM (2.14%), and JPM (1.84%).
OEX Index struggles to clear above Jan/Mar 2022 primary downtrends (1,855/1,834) and the 200-day ma (1,824). The recent Dec 2022 decline to 1,675.51 (12/22/22 low) may have found initial support at 1,655.5-1,676 (Jun, Nov, and Dec 2022 lows). However, to solidify the December bottom, OEX needs to surge above initial resistance near the 50-day ma (1,742) and above this to secondary resistance at 1,760-1,770 (11/1/22 high and the 12/15/22 gap-down). Pivotal intermediate-term resistance remains at 1,824-1,855 (200-day ma and Jan/Mar 2022 downtrend). A breakout confirms an intermediate-term recovery toward 1,976.62 (Aug 2022 reaction high). Initial support is 1,655.5-1,676 and below this to 1,625 (9/30/22 low), and 1,576.76 (6/16/22 reaction low). A breakdown below 1,576.76 warns of a retest of 1,479-1,488 (Sept and Oct 2020 lows and 61.8% retracement from the 2020-2022 rally).
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