NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) – NDX is a modified market capitalization-weighted index, comprising 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQ). NDX is heavily skewed toward the Technology, Consumer Services, and Health Care sectors. As of 9/8/23, the top 25 constituents of NDX are AAPL (10.87% market-cap weight), MSFT (9.65% market-cap weight), AMZN (5.51), NVDA (4.37), META (3.59), GOOGL (3.15), GOOG (3.13), TSLA (3.06), AVGO (2.98), ADBE (2.14), COST (2.04), PEP (2.02), CSCO (1.92), NFLX (1.64), CMCSA (1.56), AMD (1.42), TMUS (1.38), INTC (1.32), INTU (1.28), TXN (1.25), AMGN (1.16), AMAT (1.03), HON (1.02), QCOM (0.99), and BKNG (0.97). The top 25 names combined for 69.45% of the overall NDX market capitalization.
NDX breakouts above the 61.8-78.6% retracements (14,349/15,411.5) from the Nov 2021-Oct 2022 are technical significant as this suggests NDX can retest its Nov/Dec 2021 all-time highs of 16,765/16,607. However, an overbought condition near 15,932.05 (7/19/23) prompted a recent consolidation. The Aug 2023 pullback to 14,558 (8/18/23) successfully rebounded from the bottom of the Jan 2023 uptrend channel (now at 14,973). It would imply the NDX rally can revisit 15,93.05 and above this to 16,607-16,765 (Nov/Dec 2021 all-time highs), and 17,106 (top of the uptrend channel). A consolidation between 14,558 (8/18/23 low) and 15,932.05 (7/19/23 high) helps alleviate an overbought condition and allows for the next sustainable NDX rally. A breakout above 15,932.05 suggests 1,374.22 points and renders a projection at 17,306. Initial support is 14,925-14,973 (bottom of Jan 2023 uptrend channel and Jul 2023 lows). Secondary support is 14,558-14,715 (6/26/23 low and Aug 2023 lows or neckline). Violation here confirms a 3-month head/shoulders top and warns of a decline to intermediate-term support at 13,521-13,721 (Aug 2022 reaction high, May 2023 pivotal breakout, and the 5/24/23 island reversal low) and 13,312 (200-day ma).
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