NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) – NDX is a modified market capitalization-weighted index, comprising 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQ). NDX is heavily skewed toward Technology, Consumer Services, and Health Care sectors. As of 11/25/22, the top 25 constituents of NDX are AAPL (13.43% market-cap weight), MSFT (10.22), AMZN (5.31), GOOG (3.37), GOOGL (3.27), NVDA (3.20), TSLA (3.15), PEP (2.35), and COST (2.17), META (2.12), AVGO (1.98), CSCO (1.85), TMUS (1.73), TXN (1.50), ADBE (1.44), CMCSA (1.44), AMGN (1.39), HON (1.35), QCOM (1.29), NFLX (1.19), AMD (1.13), INTC (1.12), SBUX (1.05), INTU (1.03), and ADP (1.00). The top 25 names combined for 69% of the overall NDX market capitalization.
NDX remains in a primary 1-year downtrend channel as represented by 9,323 and 12,590. Another oversold rally has developed off the 10/13/22 low (10,440.64). The ensuing mid-Oct 2022 rally has cleared above the 50-day ma (11,344.62) and the 38.2% retracement from Aug-Oct 2022 decline (11,964), and 11,862 (10/25/22 high and short-term breakout). The breakout renders a year-end rally toward 12,025-12,081 (50% retracement and 11/15/22 high) and above this to pivotal resistance at 14,468-12,494 (61.8% retracement, top of Dec 2021 downtrend channel, and 200-day ma). A breakout signals the start of an intermediate-term NDX recovery toward 13,721 (Aug 2022 reaction high). Initial support rises to 11,192-11,345 (50-day ma and the 11/10/22 gap-up) and below this 10,440-10,632 (Oct and Nov 2022 lows). Violation here warns of the next NDX selloff toward 9,736.5 (Jun 2020 V-pattern breakout), 9,323 (bottom of the 1-year downtrend channel, and 8,910 (76.4% retracement from 2020-2021 rally).
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