top of page
Search

Technical Report for the Week of 6/15/20

Updated: Jun 19, 2020

Technical Summary


Equities – SPX declined 1,201.66 points or -35.41% from 2/19/20 to 3/23/20. Just as quickly as it has fallen SPX has appreciated 1,041.27 points or +47.51% trading recently to a high of 3,233.13 (6/8/20). Although a return to its all-time high (3,393.52) is still possible, the recent violation of Mar 2020 uptrend (3,124) and a daily bearish island reversal on 6/11/20 warns of a SPX consolidation toward key initial support at 2,984-3,014 (6/12/20 low, top of 5/26/20 gap up, and 200-day ma), and below this to 2,946-2,957 (5/26/20 gap up breakout), and then to 2,835-2,903 (38.2% retracement from Mar-Jun 2020, 5/18/20 gap up, and the 50-day ma). The narrowing of the spread (110.64) between the 50-day ma (2,903) and 200-day ma (3,014) may help to signal the next major SPX directional trend change.


Fixed Income – US Treasury yields have stalled near key resistances. For instance, the 30-year Treasury yield (TYX) rallied to major resistance at 1.80-1.94% before failing. Key initial support rises to 1.37-1.40%, and below this to 1.25%, and then to 1.13-1.19%. The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) has also broken out above a 3-month trading range (0.723-0.784%) but this rally has encountered key initial resistance at 0.989%. Failure to breakout hints of a pullback toward key initial support at 0.648-0.651%, and below this to 0.543-0.568%, and then to 0.398%.


Commodities – CRB Index has rallied strongly from key support at 101.48 (4/21/20) and is now fading as it nears medium-term resistance at 144.67 (50% retracement from Jan-Apr 2020 decline). Key initial support is 133.5, and below this to 128, 124-125.5, and then to 1118.5-121. WTI Crude Oil is stalling near major resistance at 41-43 (Mar 2020 head/shoulders top breakdown, 61.8% retracement from the Jan-Apr 2020 decline, and the pivotal 30-wk ma). Key support rises to 29-31 and then to 26-28.5. Gold continues to consolidate via a 3-mo triangle pattern between 1,666-1,672 (support) and 1,755-1,789 (resistance).


Currencies – Increased volatilities have returned to the currency markets as key technical tests are developing. USD is rebounding from key support at 95.71-96.02 (Dec 2019 and Jun 2020 lows). It is now headed toward a test of key resistance at 98.34-99.22 (50-day and 200-day ma). EURUSD has rallied to key resistance at 1.140-1.1422. Failure to breakout warns of a consolidation to key initial support at 1.096-1.102 (50-day and 200-day ma). JPYUSD has stalled at key resistance along 0.9365-0.9383 (Jun and Oct 2019 highs). Key support rises to 0.923-0.929 (50-day and 200-day ma).


S&P 500 Sectors – In the past 8 weeks ending on June 8, 2020, SPX has been experiencing several key sector rotations. Healthcare (XLV -3.2%), Technology (XLK 11.4%), and Consumer Staples (XLP -3.9%) have all slipped into the Weakening Quadrant. This suggests near-term corrective phases. Communication Services (XLC 11.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY 11.0%) retain their leadership roles within the Leading Quadrant. Energy (XLE 17.3%), Industrials (XLI 9.1%), and Materials (XLB 9.5%) have moved into the Improving Quadrant. XLB is close to moving into the Leading Quadrant. Utilities (XLU -3.1%) continues to decline within the Lagging Quadrant. Real Estate (XLRE 2.9%) and Financial (XLF -6.4%) have begun to turn higher within the Weakening Quadrant.


To view the entire report go to the Reports tab on the website or click the following:





41 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Closing of the Newsletter

Dear clients, After four rewarding years, the time has come for me to close the Lee Technical Strategy Newsletter, effective today. I want to take this opportunity to let you know what a great honor a

Technical Review of the Top 25 NDX 100 Index Stocks

NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) – NDX is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprising 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPQ). NDX is heavily weighted tow

bottom of page