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Technical Report for the Week of 04/10/23


Equities – SPX – Fibonacci retracements and extensions identify potential buy and sell levels. The ability of SPX to maintain 3,491.58 (10/13/22) hints at a successful test of the 50% retracement (3,505.24) from Mar 2020-Jan 2022 rally. A breakout above 4,818.62 (1/4/22) confirms the primary uptrend and renders SPX targets to 5,158.98 (h/s bottom breakout target), 6,145.66 (breakout above 4,818.62 projection) and 6,441.96 (1.618% Fibonacci extension). Support is 4,029/3,943 (50/200-day ma) and 3,764.5-4,809 (Dec 2022/Mar 2023 lows).


Fixed Income – TYX (monthly) – Above 3.0-3.03% /3.445% (2018 high) confirms structural breakout. A 3/2/23 island reversal warns consolidation to 3.413-3.68% (200-day ma). TNX (monthly) – Breakout above 3.036-3.248% suggests a structural breakout. A negative outside month (Mar 2023) warns of consolidation to 3.036-3.248%. TNX (daily) – Island reversal (3/2/23), gap-down (3/10/23), and negative outside month (Mar 2023) hint at consolidation to initial support at 3.248-3.50%. Initial resistance is 3.50-3.66% (50/200-day ma & 3/22/23 high).


Commodities – CRB – 2022 downtrend channel remains intact at 249-250 (support) and 270-274 (resistance). An oversold rally nears key resistance at 269-274 and 277-280 (200-day ma). WTI Crude – The ability to find support at 64.36 (Aug/Dec 2022 lows and the bottom of 2022 downtrend channel) suggests a rebound to critical resistance at 81-85 (top 2022 downtrend channel and 200-day ma). The gold breakout above resistance at 1,960-2,003 (Mar 2022 downtrend and Apr 2022/Feb 2023 highs) suggests 2,079 (3/8/22 high).

Currencies – USD – A 1-year head/shoulders top remains. Neckline is 100.68-101.42 (May 2022 and Feb/Mar 2023 lows). Initial resistance is 103.24 (50-day ma) and 105.5-106.5 (right shoulders). EURUSD – The Dec 2022 downtrend breakout above 1.07 hints at a bottom. Above, 1.09-1.11 reaffirms the breakout. Initial support is 1.074. USDJPY – A head and shoulders top with the neckline at 126.36-127.49 (May 2022 and Jan 2023 lows). Initial resistance is 133-134.75 (50-day ma and Jan and 4/3/23 highs) and 137.25-139.5 (shoulders).


S&P 500 Sectors – RRG study shows weaker rotations from the previous week. Materials (XLB) and Industrial (XLI) weakened in the Weakening Quadrant. Real Estate (XLRE), Financial (XLF), Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) remain in the Lagging Quadrant. XLP, XLV, and XLU improve with rising momentum. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) weakens in the Improving Quadrant. Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) weakened in the Leading Quadrant.


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