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Positive Outside Months Hint of the Resumption of Tech Leadership?


Most key US Indexes showed an outside month pattern in Sep 2020, followed by an inside month in October 2020. The two consecutive monthly patterns denote a neutral market condition or an undecisive environment where the buyers and the sellers are dead-locked. Typically, the market action in the subsequent month (Nov 2020) becomes increasingly important, as it can help to break the tie between the bullish and bearish camps. The high and low for Sep 2020 can also act as pivotal support and resistance. A positive outside month pattern coupled with new all-time highs during Nov 2020 signals an end to the 3-month trading range market and the beginning of the next bull trend.


As Nov 2020 comes to a close, most US indexes such as S&P 500 Index (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), S&P Midcap Index (MID), S&P 600 Small Cap Index (SML), and Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index ETF (IWM) lack the solid positive outside months. However, many have recorded new all-time highs reinforcing their bullish trends. However, it is interesting to note the technology-laden Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Computer Technology Index (XCI), and Dow Jones Internet Index Fund ETF (FDN) have generated solid positive outside months during Nov 2020. It is also technically significant some of the broader technology-based indexes (COMPQ) and technology-dominated sectors (XLK and XLC) also recorded borderline positive outside months during Nov 2020.


So, the pertinent question becomes - are technology indexes and sectors ready to resume their leadership roles after a brief period of underperformance? If so, will they lead into the end of the year?


Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com


Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Courtesy of StockCharts.com


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