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Is October a crash month?

October is off to a rocky start as a much weaker than expected key economic number (ISM Manufacturing index) led to sharp declines for key US indexes. S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell 1.23% for the day, Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) suffered a -1.28% setback, and NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ) declined 1.13%. These performances just reminded investors about the erratic nature of markets during the month of October. We suspect the market may continue to react to political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainties with volatile swings into the end of the month. It is also important for investors to recognize many institutional investors end their fiscal calendar year on October 31st. The collective actions of year-end portfolio adjustments can also increase stock market, sector and individual stock volatility. Attached below are analyses on key US indexes including the technical implications of negative outside days on 10/1/19.

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