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Interest Rates and Stocks

How do interest rates affect stocks?

Rising interest rates tend to result in stocks falling in value because of lower future earnings. A higher inflation rate leads to higher interest rates, adversely impacting the stock market. When interest rates rise, stock investors tend to be less bullish on stocks because the value of future earnings will be less attractive to bonds.

Why are growth stocks more sensitive to interest rates?

Growth stocks will be discounted with rising interest rates since they have longer-term cash flow horizons than value stocks. As a result, growth stocks appear less valuable, all things being equal. Higher interest favors value stocks, at least from a relative perspective.

Why do technology stocks fall when interest rates rise?

Most technology stocks are growth stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios and low dividend payouts. Since higher interest rates slow down Technology stock’s corporate business cash flows, this leads to the slowing of reinvestment in research and development and innovation projects and hence future growth projections.

Is it all about interest rates?

Not necessarily. It depends on the direction of interest rates. The Fed tightening cycle has pushed interest rates sharply higher, as evidenced by a rising uptrend over the past 2-years and TNX trading above its 50-day (3.934%) and 200-day ma (3.716%).

Historically, an inverse correlation remains between TNX and COMPQ.

When TNX rallied, it led to the technology-laden index selling and vice versa. The actions of the bond market can directly influence the stocks and, in particular, growth areas such as COMPQ, NDX, and XLK.

The Fed tightening process to fight inflation has led to TNX soaring to 4.333% (10/21/22). At the same time, COMPQ and NDX continue to trade below their respective Nov 2021 all-time highs at 16,212.23 and 16,764.86.

Is the recent TNX rally to 4.342% (8/21/23) signaling an overbought bond market condition and lower yields?

Will a convincing breakout above 4.333% confirm a higher high, reaffirming the next TNX rally toward 5.316-5.457% (2007 and 2002 highs)?

It is unclear if an overbought condition can lead to a peak in US interest rates as TNX broke out of the 1981 structural downtrend last year, suggesting the dominant and primary long-term trend is an uptrend.

The 1-year trading range between Oct 2022 high (4.333%) and the April 2023 lows (3.253%) may be a consolidation phase within a structural bull trend.

A convincing surge above the 4.333% reaffirms the resumption of the primary uptrend and warns of the next 1.08 move toward 5.413%, corresponding to the 2007/2002 highs (4.316-4.457%) and above this 6.297-6.823%, coinciding with the 38.2% retracement from 1981-2020 decline and Jan 2000 high.

On the downside, to confirm a near-to-medium term peak in interest rates, TNX must violate initial support at 4.091-4.094% (Mar/Jul 2023 highs) and secondary support at 3.716-3.934% (50-day ma and 200-day ma). Below 3.579% (6/1/23 low) hints at a retest of 3.253-3.296%/3.216% (Apr/May 2023 reaction lows, Aug 2021 uptrend, the 41-year structural breakout, and the 61.8% retracement from Aug-Oct 2022 rally). A breakdown here solidifies an intermediate-term top in TNX and a retest of 2.525% (Aug 2023 reaction low).

Ratio Analysis of TNX versus SPX, COMPQ, NDX, and XLK

What will happen to the stock market, including growth areas such as COMPQ, NDX, and XLK, as interest rates continue to rise?

Ratio analysis of TNX against SPX, COMPQ, NDX, and XLK offers clues to the performances of growth and technology stock under higher rates.

An inflection point is near as TNX/SPX, TNX/COMPQ, TNX/NDX, and TNX/XLK ratios converge toward important resistances, corresponding to 1980/1982 structural downtrends and reaction highs and lows.

TNX/SPX reaches strong resistance at 0.01155-0.01189 (2015, 2018, 2022 highs and 1987 downtrend). Although the negation of the 1980/1982 structural downtrend hints at a structural reversal, the ability to surge above 0.01155-0.01189 reaffirms the breakout.

TNX/COMPQ nears significant resistance at 0.00324-0.00493 (2012/2013 lows, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2022 highs, and 1980 structural downtrend). Breakout signals intermediate-term weakness from COMPQ.

TNX/NDX also approaches pivotal resistance at 0.00395-0.00533 (1990 downtrend, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2022 highs). A breakout reaffirms the start of intermediate-term underperformance from NDX.

TNX/XLK advances toward critical resistance at 0.00324-0.00493 (2012/2013 lows and 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2022 highs, and 1980 structural downtrend). A breakout confirms a structural breakout and warns of technology underperformance.


Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

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