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Gold and Silver Update

Gold and Silver versus Bitcoin


Bitcoin is not backed or linked to gold, other precious metals, or fiat. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that derives its value from other factors, including supply/demand, technological value, usability, and decentralized acceptance, among others.

Is gold and silver a better long-term investment than Bitcoin?


The soaring price of Bitcoin a few years ago attracted widespread interest. However, the dramatic collapse in cryptocurrencies during 2022 has hurt many traders. Although Bitcoin has become an alternate investment for some investors, Bitcoin is too volatile and erratic to be a store of value.


Is gold a legitimate asset class?


Although overshadowed by Bitcoin, gold and silver still attracts investors, especially those looking to protect their assets from inflation and geopolitical and economic uncertainties. However, some argue hard metals, including gold and silver are not a legitimate asset class as they no longer hold the monetary qualities as in the past. In today's economy, paper currency is the preferred money of choice. So, can gold still play a role in today's modern economy? Gold and silver bugs assert that these assets have intrinsic qualities that make them unique and suitable for many investors.


Gold and Silver as a safe-haven asset class


Gold and silver are sought after, not just for their hedging purposes and to make jewelry, but also used in many electronic and medical devices. There are many benefits to incorporating gold and silver as part of an overall investment strategy for the long term. Gold and silver tend to rally when there is turmoil in the global equity markets or heightened political tensions among countries. Gold is a safe-haven asset to own in your portfolio during uncertain times.


Advantages and disadvantages of Gold and Silver


One of the advantages of gold and silver is that they are stable and liquid. Gold and silver can be purchased and sold at the same price globally. Some investors own the precious metals as part of a diversified long-term investment portfolio. Gold and silver are predominately a hedge against inflation and a decline in the U.S. dollar. Because of its store of value, the hard assets can preserve wealth for many generations, unlike many of the weaker paper-denominated currencies.


There are advantages and disadvantages to every investment. Buying gold and silver, however, comes with unique costs and risks. Studies have shown that gold and silver can disappoint investors over the near-to-medium time frame. For instance, a comparison between Gold and the S&P 500 Index over the past five years showed gold and silver underperformed its counterpart. SPX over the same period.


What drives the price of Gold and Silver?


Like other commodities, supply and demand are the single most important drivers of the price of gold and silver. However, gold and silver are unique because they are also a stored value. Nonetheless, supplies of gold and silver are primarily driven by mining production. Central banks and government vaults remain a critical source of demand for the metals. Also, the investment demand from ETFs and other mutual funds can impact the underlying price of gold and silver. Gold and silver, like other commodities, tend to move in the opposite direction to the trend of the U.S. dollar because the metal is dollar-denominated, making it a good hedge against inflation.


Gold and Silver mining stocks, ETFs, and Futures


If you do not wish to hold physical gold and silver, there are alternative ways to participate in the precious metals. You can buy shares in gold and silver mining companies (i.e., Newmont Corp, Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold, Pan American Silver Corp, First Majestic Silver Corp, etc.), Gold ETFs (GLD, IAU, GDX, GDXJ, etc.), and silver ETFs (SLV, SIVR, DBS, etc.). For those that wish to purchase physical gold and silver, investing in gold and silver coins, or purchasing gold and silver jewelry may be the right choice. For aggressive gold and silver traders, the futures market may be the leveraged way to buy gold and silver.


Gold and Silver Technical Outlook


Gold and silver have experienced long-term bull and bear trends, including the 1970s to early 1980s (structural bull), 1980 to 2000 (structural bear), 2001 to 2011 (structural bull), and 2011 to present (structural trading range). Large technical bases have developed in gold and silver charts, represented by three (3) years of head and shoulders bottoms.


The gold and silver ETFs (GLD and SLV) near pivotal neckline resistances at 191.36-194.45 and 23.94-24.90.


A potential breakout above 191.36-194.45 suggests +43.88 or a gold target at 235-238. Initial support rises 179 (50-day ma) and below secondary support at 175-177 (Jun/Aug 2023 lows and the 200-day ma).


A breakout above the neckline at 23.04-24.90 suggests +8.71-11.79 points or a silver target at 33.5-36.5. Initial support rises to 21.43-21.65 (50-day and 200-day ma). Secondary support is also visible at 20.45-20.69 (Nov 2020 and Jun and Aug 2023 lows).


Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

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