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Capitulation for Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation?

Cathie Wood and her ARK Invest ETFs have experienced a wild 2021. Her flagship product and the largest of the ARK Invest ETFs, ARK Innovation (ARKK), ended last year down 23.60%, compared to the S&P 500 Index gain of 26.89%.


Although she is reeling from heavy losses, the Ark Invest CEO remains committed to her high-flying disruptive technology names.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest continues to focus on innovative and disruptive technology, including artificial intelligence, robotics, EVs, blockchain technology, big data, e-commerce, fintech, 3D printing, and genomics, continue to experience strong selling to start the year.


ARKK has fallen another 14.61 points or -15.45% in the past two weeks as investors have soured on high-valued and unprofitable technology stocks.

Before the sell-off, Wood's meteoritic rise has cemented her as one of the hottest fund managers in Wall Street. However, the recent collapse in ARKK and the other ARK Invest ETFs have many investors questioning Wood's investment approach.


The pertinent question is whether this is an ugly bear decline that is nearing its capitulation phase or are we headed toward a more serious sell-off?

Wood shrugged off the notion that stay-at-home stocks have evolved into stay-connected in a hybrid working environment. Her conviction level for the disruptive technology remains high, as evidenced by the ARKK concentrated positions in its top ten (10) holdings, including TSLA (9.56% weighting), ROKU (6.48%), TDOC (5.76%), SQ (4.37%), ZM (4.36%), SHOP (4.27%), SPOT (3.68%), TWLO (3.66%), COIN (3.65%), and U (3.41%). The top 10 positions account for 49.2% of the overall ARKK portfolio, at least from a market-cap perspective.


Not all are concerned about the recent declines in ARKK. Many investors continue to believe in the long-term prospects of disruptive technology. Despite the recent sharp sell-off in ARKK, it still has rewarded investors handsomely. Please refer to the attached charts dating back to the March 2020 pandemic low comparing ARKK to SPX, COMPQ, NDX, and XLK.


So, if you are a Cathie Wood's bull fan, then the recent setback has created another attractive buying opportunity. On the other hand, if you are a Cathie Wood's bear, the selloffs have increased fears of a speculative bubble burst in aggressive growth names with no visible earnings.


Enclosed below is a technical review of ARKK and the top ten (10) positions. ARKK is approaching an inflection point. The outcome will help decide if this is a capitulation/selling climax bottom or the start of the next major decline.


From a technical investment perspective, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement represents pivotal support. The .618 level is often called the golden ratio as the Fibonacci sequence tends to oscillate around this number. A move through the 61.8%/76.8% retracements is the point of no return, as the market will often retrace the entire 100% move. The 61.8% retracement from Mar 2020 to Feb 2021 for ARKK is 80.63. The 76.8% retracement is 59.38. Violation of 79.61-80.63 suggests the next decline to 59.5-61.5 or the 76.4% retracement, the May 2020 breakout, and the descending triangle projected downside target. Will this be the final sell-off that leads to a capitulation low and another great buying opportunity for longer-term investors?


Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com



Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Source: Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

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