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Are we there yet?

Whether it is a cyclical or structural bear market, emotions such as fear and despair tend to feed upon themselves.

The more the market declines, the greater the fear and despair.

As fear and despair subside, the selling ends, and so does the bear market.

Knowing the exact low of a bear market bottom is a challenge. Identifying when the market will bottom is also difficult.

Unless a V-type bottom occurs, most bear market bottoms take time to develop. Defining a market bottom is a process.

A technical base-building period or sideways trading tends to solidify a market bottom. However, the reversal of the downtrend via a breakout confirms the next bull trend.

The question becomes – where is the market bottom for the Nasdaq Composite Index?

How long below the necessary technical base justifies the next bull?

Enclosed are three charts of the Nasdaq Composite Index. The first is a monthly chart dating back to the 2009 global financial crisis bottom. The other two charts are daily graphs spanning 1-to-2 years.

Refer to the analyses for levels for the bear market bottom and the timing of the end of the cyclical bear.

Source: Chart courtesy of

Source: Chart courtesy of

Source: Chart courtesy of

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