If the SPX -24.52% decline this year is the next significant bear market, it should show similar characteristics to previous bear markets.
The two most recent bears that come to mind include the devasting 2007-2009 global financial crisis and equally brutal 2000-2002 tech/telecom dot.com bubble.
Based on the current technical structure (i.e., head and shoulders top breakdown and the rolling of its 50-day and 200-day moving averages) and the timing cycle (8 months in a primary downtrend), the 2022 version is approaching a critical phase.
The outcome of this phase will determine the next primary trend.
The common theme among all bear markets has been the inability to convincingly reverse the primary downtrend at critical phases of its oversold rallies.
The failure to surpass critical intermediate-term resistance, which often corresponds to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracements and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, is uncanny as they tend to reaffirm the continuation of the bear trend.
Until SPX negates the Jan 2022 primary downtrend, any rallies, however powerful and explosive they may be, are considered oversold technical bounces or bear market rallies.
Although no two markets are identical, the 2022 bear market is beginning to take the shape of the two prior bears.
Enclosed is a chart of the current bear version and the two previous bears during the earlier phase of their respective bear declines.